The Middle East oil shock

Reuters News report Some physical oil cargoes top $130 a barrel, nearing April's record, on Saudi disruptions Published Sep 15, 2026By Robert Harvey www.reuters.comRead original article (opens in a new tab)

Full article: cargo prices, Yanbu suspension, cancelled European cargoes

Used for the physical-versus-futures price gap and the Saudi export disruptions, attributed to trade sources and LSEG data.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Radio-Canada / CBC Analysis Canada's oil windfall may yet wipe out its losses from tariffs Published Sep 15, 2026 ici.radio-canada.caRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Sections on the Bab al-Mandab strait and the pipeline, and on oil revenue in Canada

Analysis piece carrying original CBC interviews (Calnan, Stanford, Meredith, Pardy). The feed copy held has lost its quotation marks, so nothing from it is quoted directly. Per the citation ladder it grounds only attributed claims. Its attribution of the pipeline attack differs from other reports. It marks US dollars explicitly, so its unmarked dollar figures are read as Canadian.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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US Congressional Budget Office Official record Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran (letter to Rep. Brendan F. Boyle) Published Sep 15, 2026 www.cbo.govRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Pages 2 and 3 (costs, inflation) and the background section (two restrictions on shipping, ceasefire dates)

Letter signed by Director Phillip L. Swagel. cbo.gov refuses automated downloads, so the copy held is the Internet Archive capture of the same PDF taken 2026-09-20. CBO is a nonpartisan office of the US Congress. The United States is a party to the war. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/cbo-62756-iran.wayback-20260920012912.pdf.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Evidence forThe war had cost the US Department of Defense approximately US$38 billion as of August 1, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimated on September 15. Each further month costs US$2 billion at the May and June level of fighting and US$3 billion at July's level, it said. It also projected US inflation in early 2027 at 0.5 percentage points above its forecast of February 2026.Explore this claim →

IRNA, Iran's state news agency (reprinted by GlobalSecurity.org) Stakeholder statement No talks with US until Iran's conditions are met: Security chief Published Sep 15, 2026 www.globalsecurity.orgRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Whole item (IRNA News ID 86264369)

State media of a party to the war. IRNA spells the official's name Rezaee. It quotes his post directly ('No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period!') and paraphrases 'mixed signals'. It does not list the conditions. Its closing paragraphs give Iran's account of July 2026 in IRNA's own voice. Held as the globalsecurity.org reprint. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/irna-260915-irna07.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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RTTNews (via Nasdaq) News report Crude Oil Skyrockets Amid Expansive Supply Disruption Concerns Published Sep 15, 2026 www.nasdaq.comRead original article (opens in a new tab)

Paragraphs on the pipeline, the cancelled meeting in Oman and the Kpler transit counts

Newswire market report. Used, with attribution, for the flow the pipeline carried, its attribution of the attack to Houthi drones, the cancelled September 14 meeting and the count of four vessels through the strait that day. Its sentence that Iran wants a deal 'quickly and badly' is the newswire's paraphrase of President Trump and is not used as a quotation.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Related reporting onThe United States and Iran have held no official negotiations since late June 2026, the US-funded broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. On September 14 President Donald Trump wrote that Iran 'wants to make a deal, quickly and badly'. The decision to engage was his, he wrote, 'The concept of which we are open to'. Iran's state news agency IRNA quoted a post by Mohsen Rezaee, Iran's security council secretary, as saying 'No talks until Iran's conditions are met'.Explore this claim →

Saudi Press Agency Stakeholder statement East-West Pipeline Shut Down as a Precaution Following Multiple Attacks Published Sep 11, 2026 www.spa.gov.saRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Whole statement, dateline Riyadh, September 11, 2026

State news agency quoting an unnamed official source at the Ministry of Energy. Saudi Arabia is a party to the fighting with the Houthis. The statement names no attacker, weapon, volume or restart date. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/spa-N2674017-east-west-pipeline.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Sep 11, 2026Saudi Arabia says its East-West Pipeline is shut

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Evidence forSaudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has been shut since attacks on September 10, 2026, and no restart date has been given. The Saudi statement blames no one for the attacks. Reuters, citing trade sources, reported on September 15 that loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu were suspended and late-September cargoes to Europe cancelled.Explore this claim →

Saba, the Houthi-run news agency in Sana'a Stakeholder statement Armed Forces announce launch of qualitative military operation Published Sep 11, 2026 www.saba.yeRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Closing paragraphs on navigation and on 'a siege for a siege'

Statement issued by the Houthi armed forces, which call themselves the Yemeni Armed Forces, carried by the news agency they run. Evidence of what the Houthis say, not of what happened. It does not mention a pipeline. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/saba-news3785604.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Sep 11, 2026Saudi Arabia says its East-West Pipeline is shut

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Evidence forSaudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has been shut since attacks on September 10, 2026, and no restart date has been given. The Saudi statement blames no one for the attacks. Reuters, citing trade sources, reported on September 15 that loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu were suspended and late-September cargoes to Europe cancelled.Explore this claim →

International Energy Agency Official record Oil Market Report - September 2026 (public highlights) Published Sep 11, 2026 www.iea.orgRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Highlights and the overview paragraphs on Gulf exports, prices and inventories

Public highlights page. The full report is for subscribers and is not held. Used for Gulf exports, the split between futures and physical prices, inventories and the role of Russian refining. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/iea-omr-2026-09-highlights.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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ABC News (Australia), with Reuters News report Houthis advance along Yemeni coast, threaten Saudi oil exports in Red Sea Published Sep 11, 2026 www.abc.net.auRead original article (opens in a new tab)

Paragraphs on the Houthi shipping ban, the Iranian official's reply and the ship-tracking count

News report built largely on Reuters reporting, so it shares Reuters' independence group. Used for the count of seven vessels through the strait on September 9, the Houthi ban on Saudi shipping declared in July 2026, and a senior Iranian official's words 'Iran does not control the Houthis'.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Evidence forGulf oil exports in August 2026 were around 13 million barrels a day, nearly half their prewar level, the International Energy Agency estimates. Before the war about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. The agency credits the remaining flow partly to routes that bypass the strait and to US military escorts through it.Explore this claim →

Bloomberg (via Mint) News report Oil Pushes Further Above $100 as Middle East Conflict Deepens Published Sep 10, 2026 www.livemint.comRead original article (opens in a new tab)

Opening paragraphs; escalation summary and prewar Hormuz share

Bloomberg market wrap syndicated on Mint, so it is wire copy. The bloomberg.com original is paywalled and this copy stands in (same independence group). Used for the April peak and the prewar share of oil and liquefied natural gas moving through Hormuz.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Evidence forGulf oil exports in August 2026 were around 13 million barrels a day, nearly half their prewar level, the International Energy Agency estimates. Before the war about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. The agency credits the remaining flow partly to routes that bypass the strait and to US military escorts through it.Explore this claim →

IRNA, Iran's state news agency (reprinted by GlobalSecurity.org) Stakeholder statement IRGC targets US vessels, tankers in Strait of Hormuz Published Sep 9, 2026 www.globalsecurity.orgRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Whole item (IRNA News ID 86259081)

State media of a party to the war reporting a statement by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Evidence of what Iran says, not of what happened. en.irna.ir blocks automated downloads, so the copy held is the full-text reprint on globalsecurity.org, which prints the IRNA byline, time and News ID. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/irna-260909-irna01.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Bank of Canada Official record Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement Published Sep 2, 2026 www.bankofcanada.caRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Paragraphs on oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz and what monetary policy can do

Governor Tiff Macklem's prepared remarks. His wording is 'shipments through the Strait of Hormuz still curtailed'. The phrase 'little progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz' is the press release's (s08), not his. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/boc-opening-statement-2026-09-02.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

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Statistics Canada Official record The Daily: Consumer Price Index, July 2026 Published Aug 17, 2026 www150.statcan.gc.caRead original source (opens in a new tab)

Headline CPI and gasoline paragraphs

Official July 2026 CPI release. The August release (s13) followed on September 14, 2026. The sentence with 'the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz' is in this release and does not say whose blockade. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/statcan-cpi-july-2026-08-17.html.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.