The Middle East oil shock

Paragraphs on energy prices, refinery margins and the condition for a policy response

Published on the edition's cutoff day. It records a meeting held before September 2, so it does not reflect the September price rise. Names two causes of high refinery margins, Middle Eastern and Russian refinery capacity. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/boc-deliberations-2026-09-16.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Reuters News report Some physical oil cargoes top $130 a barrel, nearing April's record, on Saudi disruptions Published Sep 15, 2026By Robert Harvey www.reuters.comRead original article ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Full article: cargo prices, Yanbu suspension, cancelled European cargoes

Used for the physical-versus-futures price gap and the Saudi export disruptions, attributed to trade sources and LSEG data.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Opening paragraphs: cost figure, inflation projection, uncertainty note

AP report on the Congressional Budget Office letter, which is now held itself as s15. Used for the word nonpartisan, for who requested the estimate and for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's own figure. AP's 'more than $38 billion' is CBO's 'approximately $38 billion'.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Last paragraph: Iran's stated conditions

Wire rewrite of an Axios report. Used only for Iran's conditions as ANI states them. Its figure of about 40 escorted vessels a day comes from one unnamed US official, is contradicted by ship-tracking counts in s27 and s28, and is not used. ANI spells the Iranian official's name Rezaei and dates his post a day later than RFE/RL does.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Sections on the Bab al-Mandab strait and the pipeline, and on oil revenue in Canada

Analysis piece carrying original CBC interviews (Calnan, Stanford, Meredith, Pardy). The feed copy held has lost its quotation marks, so nothing from it is quoted directly. Per the citation ladder it grounds only attributed claims. Its attribution of the pipeline attack differs from other reports. It marks US dollars explicitly, so its unmarked dollar figures are read as Canadian.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Sections on Hormuz control, Chinese demand and non-Middle-East production

Explanatory feature. Its style and quoted analysts suggest syndicated US-network content, and the original was not identified. Per the citation ladder it grounds only the attributed JPMorgan estimates in the backup-plans curiosity answer. It grounds no claim.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Rows for the weeks ending 2026-07-28, 2026-08-11, 2026-09-01, 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-15, and the margin notes

Live data page with no publication date. The row for the week ending Tuesday, September 15, 2026 is treated as available the next day. Prices include taxes, come from Kalibrate's survey of cities, and 'do not represent provincial or state averages'. The page does not say how the Canada figure is weighted. A row labelled week ending 2026-09-22 is a partial week after the cutoff and is not used. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/nrcan-weekly-regular-gasoline.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Pages 2 and 3 (costs, inflation) and the background section (two restrictions on shipping, ceasefire dates)

Letter signed by Director Phillip L. Swagel. cbo.gov refuses automated downloads, so the copy held is the Internet Archive capture of the same PDF taken 2026-09-20. CBO is a nonpartisan office of the US Congress. The United States is a party to the war. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/cbo-62756-iran.wayback-20260920012912.pdf.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Whole item (IRNA News ID 86264369)

State media of a party to the war. IRNA spells the official's name Rezaee. It quotes his post directly ('No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period!') and paraphrases 'mixed signals'. It does not list the conditions. Its closing paragraphs give Iran's account of July 2026 in IRNA's own voice. Held as the globalsecurity.org reprint. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/irna-260915-irna07.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Sheet 'Data 1', columns RWTC and RBRTE, rows for 2026

Daily SPOT prices, not futures settlements. The last row used is September 15, 2026, treated as available the next day. Statistical agency of a government that is a party to the war. Used only in the curiosity answer on what would bring prices down. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/eia-spot-prices-brent-wti-daily.xls.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Paragraphs on the pipeline, the cancelled meeting in Oman and the Kpler transit counts

Newswire market report. Used, with attribution, for the flow the pipeline carried, its attribution of the attack to Houthi drones, the cancelled September 14 meeting and the count of four vessels through the strait that day. Its sentence that Iran wants a deal 'quickly and badly' is the newswire's paraphrase of President Trump and is not used as a quotation.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Headline paragraph and the section 'Gasoline prices increase at a slower pace'

Official August 2026 CPI release, published two days before the cutoff. The word 'blockade' does not appear in it. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/statcan-cpi-august-2026-09-14.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

The whole post

Statement by the head of government of a party to the war. Held through a third-party archive of Truth Social, which records the original post time as 11:32 am EDT and links the original at truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/117270114981057392. The words 'quickly and badly' are his description of what Iran wants. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/trump-truth-41715.trumpstruth-archive.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Whole live-blog item, time-stamped 18:07 on 14.9.2026

RFE/RL is funded by the US government, a party to the war. Used for the date of Rezaee's X post, the direct quotation of 'mixed signals', the June memorandum and the absence of official negotiations since late June. The copy held is the reprint on globalsecurity.org. The rferl.org original was not downloaded. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/rferl-260914-trump-open-to-deal.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Second paragraph, the direct quotation of Ali Bahreini (IRNA News ID 86264119)

State media of a party to the war quoting Iran's permanent representative to the UN office in Geneva. Evidence of what Iran says. Held as the globalsecurity.org reprint. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/irna-260914-irna02.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Whole statement, dateline Riyadh, September 11, 2026

State news agency quoting an unnamed official source at the Ministry of Energy. Saudi Arabia is a party to the fighting with the Houthis. The statement names no attacker, weapon, volume or restart date. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/spa-N2674017-east-west-pipeline.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Closing paragraphs on navigation and on 'a siege for a siege'

Statement issued by the Houthi armed forces, which call themselves the Yemeni Armed Forces, carried by the news agency they run. Evidence of what the Houthis say, not of what happened. It does not mention a pipeline. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/saba-news3785604.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Highlights and the overview paragraphs on Gulf exports, prices and inventories

Public highlights page. The full report is for subscribers and is not held. Used for Gulf exports, the split between futures and physical prices, inventories and the role of Russian refining. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/iea-omr-2026-09-highlights.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

ABC News (Australia), with Reuters News report Houthis advance along Yemeni coast, threaten Saudi oil exports in Red Sea Published Sep 11, 2026 www.abc.net.auRead original article ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paragraphs on the Houthi shipping ban, the Iranian official's reply and the ship-tracking count

News report built largely on Reuters reporting, so it shares Reuters' independence group. Used for the count of seven vessels through the strait on September 9, the Houthi ban on Saudi shipping declared in July 2026, and a senior Iranian official's words 'Iran does not control the Houthis'.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Opening paragraphs; escalation summary and prewar Hormuz share

Bloomberg market wrap syndicated on Mint, so it is wire copy. The bloomberg.com original is paywalled and this copy stands in (same independence group). Used for the April peak and the prewar share of oil and liquefied natural gas moving through Hormuz.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Reuters (via The Star) News report Oil jumps over 6% on more tanker attacks Published Sep 10, 2026 www.thestar.com.myRead original article ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paragraphs 1-9: settlement prices, Mocha, the tanker exchange, S&P Global Energy

Reuters market report carried by The Star (Malaysia); the reuters.com original was not reachable at authoring time, so this syndicated copy stands in (same independence group). Used for the September 10 settlement prices and the attributed accounts of the tanker exchanges.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Middle sections: Bank of Canada expectations, Canadian pump price, bond yields

Canadian macro coverage of September 10, 2026. Used for market bets on a rate increase, the 10-year Government of Canada bond yield and Doug Porter's remarks. Its sentence on Governor Macklem is the newspaper's summary and is attributed as such. Its national average gasoline price of $1.78 a litre names no data source and disagrees with Natural Resources Canada's series (s14), so it appears only in the scope of c04.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Whole item (IRNA News ID 86259081)

State media of a party to the war reporting a statement by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Evidence of what Iran says, not of what happened. en.irna.ir blocks automated downloads, so the copy held is the full-text reprint on globalsecurity.org, which prints the IRNA byline, time and News ID. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/irna-260909-irna01.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

First sentence of the post

Statement by the military command of a party to the war. Evidence of what the United States says, not of what happened. The copy held comes from X's syndication endpoint and is cut off after 271 characters, so only the first sentence is quoted. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/centcom-x-2097448820099711412.json.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Rate decision and the paragraphs on energy prices and inflation risks

Official rate announcement. Both 'little progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz' and the sentence on refinery margins and spillover are in this release, not in the Governor's statement (s11). Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/boc-press-release-2026-09-02.html.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Paragraphs on oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz and what monetary policy can do

Governor Tiff Macklem's prepared remarks. His wording is 'shipments through the Strait of Hormuz still curtailed'. The phrase 'little progress reopening the Strait of Hormuz' is the press release's (s08), not his. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/boc-opening-statement-2026-09-02.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Section 'Surplus' and the table 'Oil prices and assumptions'

The C$2 billion surplus is the government's own forecast of August 27, 2026, resting on West Texas Intermediate at US$73.50 a barrel. It is not an outcome. Only the two-page fact sheet is held, not the full report. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/alberta-2026-27-q1-fact-sheet.pdf.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Headline CPI and gasoline paragraphs

Official July 2026 CPI release. The August release (s13) followed on September 14, 2026. The sentence with 'the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz' is in this release and does not say whose blockade. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/statcan-cpi-july-2026-08-17.html.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Opening paragraph, the stated objectives

Release by the government of a party to the war. It is dated March 12, 2026, twelve days after the first strikes. No US statement dated February 28 is held. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/wh-2026-03-operation-epic-fury.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Opening paragraph, the stated objective of the operation

Statement by the military of a party to the war, on the war's first day. idf.il blocks automated downloads, so the copy held is the Internet Archive capture of 2026-04-29. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/israel-idf-briefing-2026-02-28.wayback-20260429143041.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Sections on crude oil, the exchange rate and heavy oil

Plain-language explainer from 2024, used as a reference for how a litre of gasoline is priced. It does not discuss 2026. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/boc-what-you-pay-at-the-pump-2024-06.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

First paragraph, the four components of the retail price

Reference page from 2017. Used only for the list of components. Its cents-per-litre figures are for July 2016 to June 2017 and are not used. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/cer-snapshot-gasoline-prices-differ-2017.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.