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The Middle East oil shock

Oil is sold on a world market, so Canadian refiners pay the world price. No official negotiations to end the war are under way.

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No negotiations, and a US estimate of what the war costs

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WHAT HAPPENED

On September 14 President Donald Trump wrote that Iran 'wants to make a deal, quickly and badly'. He added that the United States was open to engaging and that the decision was his. Hours later Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, posted on X. The US-funded broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty quoted the post as warning of the US president's 'mixed signals'. Iran's state news agency IRNA reported the post on September 15 and quoted it as saying 'No talks until Iran's conditions are met'. A meeting between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran, set for September 14 in Oman, was cancelled. The newswire RTTNews said that left the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, as oil prices climbed on September 15. The same day the US Congressional Budget Office estimated the war's cost to the Defense Department at approximately US$38 billion as of August 1.

Why this matters

Neither post proposes a meeting. Iran puts conditions before any talks, and the US president says the United States is open to engaging and that the choice is his.

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Stated position Statement documented. The source records what was said or reported. It does not verify the claim itself.

The United States and Iran have held no official negotiations since late June 2026, the US-funded broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. On September 14 President Donald Trump wrote that Iran 'wants to make a deal, quickly and badly'. The decision to engage was his, he wrote, 'The concept of which we are open to'. Iran's state news agency IRNA quoted a post by Mohsen Rezaee, Iran's security council secretary, as saying 'No talks until Iran's conditions are met'.

President Trump says Iran wants a deal 'quickly and badly'. What does Iran say? →
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The war had cost the US Department of Defense approximately US$38 billion as of August 1, 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimated on September 15. Each further month costs US$2 billion at the May and June level of fighting and US$3 billion at July's level, it said. It also projected US inflation in early 2027 at 0.5 percentage points above its forecast of February 2026.

The budget office's inflation figure is half a percentage point. Whose inflation? →
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