The Middle East oil shock

Opening paragraphs: cost figure, inflation projection, uncertainty note

AP report on the Congressional Budget Office letter, which is now held itself as s15. Used for the word nonpartisan, for who requested the estimate and for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's own figure. AP's 'more than $38 billion' is CBO's 'approximately $38 billion'.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Last paragraph: Iran's stated conditions

Wire rewrite of an Axios report. Used only for Iran's conditions as ANI states them. Its figure of about 40 escorted vessels a day comes from one unnamed US official, is contradicted by ship-tracking counts in s27 and s28, and is not used. ANI spells the Iranian official's name Rezaei and dates his post a day later than RFE/RL does.

Retrieved Sep 16, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Pages 2 and 3 (costs, inflation) and the background section (two restrictions on shipping, ceasefire dates)

Letter signed by Director Phillip L. Swagel. cbo.gov refuses automated downloads, so the copy held is the Internet Archive capture of the same PDF taken 2026-09-20. CBO is a nonpartisan office of the US Congress. The United States is a party to the war. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/cbo-62756-iran.wayback-20260920012912.pdf.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Whole item (IRNA News ID 86264369)

State media of a party to the war. IRNA spells the official's name Rezaee. It quotes his post directly ('No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period!') and paraphrases 'mixed signals'. It does not list the conditions. Its closing paragraphs give Iran's account of July 2026 in IRNA's own voice. Held as the globalsecurity.org reprint. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/irna-260915-irna07.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Paragraphs on the pipeline, the cancelled meeting in Oman and the Kpler transit counts

Newswire market report. Used, with attribution, for the flow the pipeline carried, its attribution of the attack to Houthi drones, the cancelled September 14 meeting and the count of four vessels through the strait that day. Its sentence that Iran wants a deal 'quickly and badly' is the newswire's paraphrase of President Trump and is not used as a quotation.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

The whole post

Statement by the head of government of a party to the war. Held through a third-party archive of Truth Social, which records the original post time as 11:32 am EDT and links the original at truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/117270114981057392. The words 'quickly and badly' are his description of what Iran wants. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/trump-truth-41715.trumpstruth-archive.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.

Whole live-blog item, time-stamped 18:07 on 14.9.2026

RFE/RL is funded by the US government, a party to the war. Used for the date of Rezaee's X post, the direct quotation of 'mixed signals', the June memorandum and the absence of official negotiations since late June. The copy held is the reprint on globalsecurity.org. The rferl.org original was not downloaded. Raw copy: evidence/mideast-oil-shock/primary-raw-oilshock/rferl-260914-trump-open-to-deal.globalsecurity-mirror.html.

Retrieved Sep 20, 2026. Original historical capture has not been verified.