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The Middle East oil shock

Oil is sold on a world market, so Canadian refiners pay the world price. No official negotiations to end the war are under way.

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The Bank of Canada holds its rate at 2.25 per cent

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WHAT HAPPENED

The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25 per cent. That rate steers what Canadians pay to borrow. Its release tied high energy prices to the continuing conflict in the Middle East and said the risks to its inflation forecast had grown. Gasoline was up 25.7 per cent in the year to July 2026, by Statistics Canada's count, and prices excluding gasoline were up 2.2 per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem said in his opening statement that the Bank's rate has no influence on world energy prices.

Why this matters

Gasoline was up by a quarter in a year and the Bank left its rate alone. It said it was watching for expensive energy turning up in the prices of other goods and services.

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The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent on September 2, 2026. Its release said the continuing conflict in the Middle East was keeping energy prices high and that upside risks to its inflation forecast had increased. It also reported 'little evidence of higher energy prices spreading to other components of inflation' at that point.

The Bank of Canada says a conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices high. What did it do with interest rates? →
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