A war that began on February 28, 2026, and a second front in Yemen.
The war began on February 28, 2026, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The White House said on March 12 that its objectives included destroying Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and its navy. Another was ensuring Iran 'will never acquire a nuclear weapon'. Israel's military said its aim was to 'remove existential threats to the State of Israel over time'. Iran's envoy in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, called the strikes 'illegal military aggression by the US and the Zionist regime', his term for Israel. A ceasefire began on April 8. President Trump declared it over on July 10, after what the US Congressional Budget Office calls Iranian attacks on tankers. Iran's state news agency IRNA says the United States broke a June agreement with attacks and a naval blockade. A second front has its own stated cause. Yemen's Houthi forces say their blockade of Saudi vessels will last 'until the aggression stops and the blockade against our dear people is lifted'. In their statement both are Saudi Arabia's doing. Saudi Arabia sent Iran a warning through Pakistan to rein the Houthis in, according to Australia's ABC. A senior Iranian official's answer was 'Iran does not control the Houthis'.
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The refining margin is the refiner's share of a litre. Natural Resources Canada's estimate of it, which the department calls an approximation, fell from 61.8 to 54.6 cents in early September 2026. The pump price rose over the same weeks. How much of a rise in crude reaches the pump, and how fast?
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Do prices excluding gasoline keep rising in the months after August 2026?
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The fighting has more than one front. Who would have to agree for all of it to stop?
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Alberta made its forecast before oil passed US$100 a barrel. What does its next fiscal update show?
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Inventories have fallen every month since February 2026. What happens when there is less left to draw?
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Iran has set conditions for talking and the United States has listed objectives for the war. Which could change first?
