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The Bank of Canada's next move

Why the Bank has held seven times in a row, and what could make it move on October 28.

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Home sales fall, and fixed mortgage rates have already risen

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WHAT HAPPENED

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported home sales down 6.9 per cent from a year earlier in August 2026. Its national price index was off 3 per cent. Reuters reported that increased mortgage rates and rising economic uncertainty weighed on sales. CREA's senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, said fixed mortgage rates had 'already increased on higher bond yields'. Bond yields are the interest rates investors demand to lend to governments. Reuters said they had climbed globally as higher energy prices pushed up inflation and central banks, the Bank of Canada among them, contemplated rate hikes. On the variable side, Cathcart said, a rate hike was 'not only back on the table for this year but already priced in by markets'. Priced in means traders already treat it as expected.

Why this matters

By one economist's account, fixed-rate borrowers were paying more while the Bank's rate stayed put. The home-sales figures were a first reading of what that does to housing.

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Canadian home sales fell 6.9 per cent year over year in August 2026, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported. CREA's senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, said fixed mortgage rates had already increased on higher bond yields. On the variable-rate side, he said, markets had priced in a Bank of Canada hike.

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