Inflation holds at 3 per cent in August

Sep 14, 2026Moment 4 of 7

Inflation holds at 3 per cent in August

WHAT HAPPENED

Statistics Canada reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0 per cent in the year to August 2026, the same as July. The CPI measures what a typical household's purchases cost, and the all-items figure is often called headline inflation. Gasoline was up 22.8 per cent. Excluding gasoline, prices rose 2.4 per cent, against 2.2 per cent the month before. Grocery inflation, at 2.8 per cent, fell below the headline rate for the first time since July 2024. Groceries still cost 29 per cent more than in August 2021. Rent rose 2.8 per cent, faster than July's 2.5 per cent. Two analysts quoted by Investing.com saw no broad acceleration. One of them, Andrew DiCapua of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, called inflation 'fairly contained'. CIBC moved its forecast of a first hike earlier, to the first quarter of 2027, while still expecting an October hold.

Why this matters

August gave the Bank no broad surge to react to. Inflation excluding gasoline, which the Bank cites, rose from 2.2 to 2.4 per cent, and the analysts quoted read the report as contained.

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Consumer prices rose 3.0 per cent in the year to August 2026. Excluding gasoline, the increase was 2.4 per cent, up from 2.2 per cent in July. Grocery price growth, at 2.8 per cent, fell below headline inflation for the first time since July 2024.

Three per cent is an average. An average of what? → Forecast Not yet confirmed

By mid-September 2026, CIBC's economists and financial markets read the Bank of Canada's path differently. CIBC expected an October hold. It moved its forecast of a first hike earlier, to the first quarter of 2027 from the second. On September 15 the Canadian Real Estate Association's senior economist said markets had a 2026 hike already priced in.

Traders and a big bank's economists read October differently. Does the Bank follow either? → See all 2 claims from this moment →