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The Bank of Canada's next move

Why the Bank has held seven times in a row, and what could make it move on October 28.

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Answered THE MECHANISM

Expensive oil came first, then tariffs.

Start with oil. The Bank of Canada says the continuing conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices high, with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz curtailed. Canadian gasoline cost 22.8 per cent more in August 2026 than a year earlier. The Bank says gasoline is the main reason inflation has hovered around 3 per cent. Then, in late August, the Canada-US trade conflict flared again. Each country's tariffs add costs for the businesses that pay them, and those costs can reach consumer prices over time. The Bank expects that effect to be muted for Canada's counter-tariffs.

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Does September's CPI excluding gasoline stay near 2.4 per cent, or start climbing?

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If shipments through the Strait of Hormuz returned to normal, how fast would Canadian prices feel it?

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What would a quarter-point hike add to a typical variable mortgage payment?

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What number in the October 19 CPI release would make a cut arguable again?